Modelling A.I. in Economics

CCK Crown Holdings Inc. (Forecast)

Outlook: Crown Holdings Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 01 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Crown Holdings Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CCK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. Nash Equilibria

CCK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Crown Holdings Inc. Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CCK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CCK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CCK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CCK Crown Holdings Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 01 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Crown Holdings Inc.

  1. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  2. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.
  3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  4. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Crown Holdings Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Crown Holdings Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CCK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CCK Crown Holdings Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Ba3
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 492 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  2. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  3. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  4. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  6. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  7. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CCK stock?
A: CCK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is CCK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CCK Stock.
Q: Is Crown Holdings Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crown Holdings Inc. is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CCK stock?
A: The consensus rating for CCK is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CCK stock?
A: The prediction period for CCK is (n+3 month)

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