Modelling A.I. in Economics

CDNA CareDx Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: CareDx Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 05 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

CareDx Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CDNA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

CDNA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CareDx Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CDNA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CDNA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CDNA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CDNA CareDx Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 05 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CareDx Inc. Common Stock

  1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  2. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
  3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CareDx Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CareDx Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CDNA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CDNA CareDx Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Ba1
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 633 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  2. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  3. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
  4. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  5. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  6. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CDNA stock?
A: CDNA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is CDNA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CDNA Stock.
Q: Is CareDx Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CareDx Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CDNA stock?
A: The consensus rating for CDNA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CDNA stock?
A: The prediction period for CDNA is (n+8 weeks)



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