Modelling A.I. in Economics

CIF MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock

Outlook: MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 08 May 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CIF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. What is prediction model?

CIF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of CIF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CIF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CIF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CIF MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 08 May 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock

  1. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  2. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
  4. If a put option obligation written by an entity or call option right held by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at amortised cost, the associated liability is measured at its cost (ie the consideration received) adjusted for the amortisation of any difference between that cost and the gross carrying amount of the transferred asset at the expiration date of the option. For example, assume that the gross carrying amount of the asset on the date of the transfer is CU98 and that the consideration received is CU95. The gross carrying amount of the asset on the option exercise date will be CU100. The initial carrying amount of the associated liability is CU95 and the difference between CU95 and CU100 is recognised in profit or loss using the effective interest method. If the option is exercised, any difference between the carrying amount of the associated liability and the exercise price is recognised in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CIF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CIF MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBa1Ba3
Cash FlowB3Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 617 signals.

References

  1. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  2. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  3. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  4. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  5. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  6. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CIF stock?
A: CIF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is CIF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CIF Stock.
Q: Is MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MFS Intermediate High Income Fund Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CIF stock?
A: The consensus rating for CIF is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CIF stock?
A: The prediction period for CIF is (n+16 weeks)



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