Modelling A.I. in Economics

CLFD Clearfield Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Clearfield Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Clearfield Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CLFD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Trading Signals

CLFD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Clearfield Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CLFD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CLFD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CLFD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CLFD Clearfield Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Clearfield Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  2. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
  3. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  4. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Clearfield Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Clearfield Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CLFD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CLFD Clearfield Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3B2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 543 signals.

References

  1. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  2. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  4. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  6. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CLFD stock?
A: CLFD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is CLFD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CLFD Stock.
Q: Is Clearfield Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Clearfield Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CLFD stock?
A: The consensus rating for CLFD is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CLFD stock?
A: The prediction period for CLFD is (n+4 weeks)

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