Modelling A.I. in Economics

CPG Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) (Forecast)

Outlook: Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 24 May 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. Game Theory
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

CPG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CPG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CPG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPG Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada)
Time series to forecast n: 24 May 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada)

  1. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  2. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
  3. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CPG Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 772 signals.

References

  1. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  3. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  4. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CPG stock?
A: CPG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is CPG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CPG Stock.
Q: Is Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crescent Point Energy Corporation Ordinary Shares (Canada) is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPG stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CPG stock?
A: The prediction period for CPG is (n+1 year)

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