Modelling A.I. in Economics

HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 25 May 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HOPE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Trust metric by Neural Network
  2. Can statistics predict the future?
  3. Is now good time to invest?

HOPE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HOPE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOPE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HOPE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 25 May 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock

  1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  2. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  3. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
  4. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HOPE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 691 signals.

References

  1. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  2. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  3. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  4. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
  7. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HOPE stock?
A: HOPE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is HOPE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes HOPE Stock.
Q: Is Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hope Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HOPE stock?
A: The consensus rating for HOPE is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for HOPE stock?
A: The prediction period for HOPE is (n+6 month)

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