Modelling A.I. in Economics

IFS Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 12 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. Stock Rating

IFS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of IFS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IFS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IFS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IFS Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 12 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares

  1. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  2. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  3. If a financial asset contains a contractual term that could change the timing or amount of contractual cash flows (for example, if the asset can be prepaid before maturity or its term can be extended), the entity must determine whether the contractual cash flows that could arise over the life of the instrument due to that contractual term are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. To make this determination, the entity must assess the contractual cash flows that could arise both before, and after, the change in contractual cash flows. The entity may also need to assess the nature of any contingent event (ie the trigger) that would change the timing or amount of the contractual cash flows. While the nature of the contingent event in itself is not a determinative factor in assessing whether the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest, it may be an indicator. For example, compare a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if the debtor misses a particular number of payments to a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if a specified equity index reaches a particular level. It is more likely in the former case that the contractual cash flows over the life of the instrument will be solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding because of the relationship between missed payments and an increase in credit risk. (See also paragraph B4.1.18.)
  4. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

IFS Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosB3B2
Cash FlowBa3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 833 signals.

References

  1. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  2. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  3. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  4. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  7. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for IFS stock?
A: IFS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is IFS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell IFS Stock.
Q: Is Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Common Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IFS stock?
A: The consensus rating for IFS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for IFS stock?
A: The prediction period for IFS is (n+8 weeks)

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