Modelling A.I. in Economics

K:TSX Kinross Gold Corporation

Outlook: Kinross Gold Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 25 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Kinross Gold Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the K:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. How do you pick a stock?

K:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Kinross Gold Corporation Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of K:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of K:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

K:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: K:TSX Kinross Gold Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 25 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Kinross Gold Corporation

  1. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  2. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
  3. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
  4. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Kinross Gold Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Kinross Gold Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the K:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

K:TSX Kinross Gold Corporation Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Ba3
Cash FlowB2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 531 signals.

References

  1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  4. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  5. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  6. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for K:TSX stock?
A: K:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is K:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold K:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Kinross Gold Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kinross Gold Corporation is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of K:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for K:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for K:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for K:TSX is (n+8 weeks)

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