Outlook: VOLUTION GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 13 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

## Abstract

VOLUTION GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FAN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. What is neural prediction?

## LON:FAN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider VOLUTION GROUP PLC Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FAN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FAN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:FAN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FAN VOLUTION GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for VOLUTION GROUP PLC

1. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
2. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
3. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.
4. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

VOLUTION GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. VOLUTION GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FAN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### LON:FAN VOLUTION GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBa1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 765 signals.

## References

1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
3. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
4. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
5. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
6. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
7. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FAN stock?
A: LON:FAN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:FAN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:FAN Stock.
Q: Is VOLUTION GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VOLUTION GROUP PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FAN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FAN is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FAN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FAN is (n+3 month)