Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:GILD GUILD ESPORTS PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: GUILD ESPORTS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

GUILD ESPORTS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:GILD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LON:GILD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GUILD ESPORTS PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GILD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GILD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GILD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GILD GUILD ESPORTS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for GUILD ESPORTS PLC

  1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  2. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  4. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

GUILD ESPORTS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. GUILD ESPORTS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:GILD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:GILD GUILD ESPORTS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1B3
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 577 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  2. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  3. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  6. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  7. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GILD stock?
A: LON:GILD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:GILD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:GILD Stock.
Q: Is GUILD ESPORTS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GUILD ESPORTS PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GILD stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GILD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GILD stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GILD is (n+3 month)

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