Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HONY HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 01 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HONY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. Dominated Move

LON:HONY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HONY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HONY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HONY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HONY HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 01 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

  1. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
  2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
  4. When an entity, consistent with its hedge documentation, frequently resets (ie discontinues and restarts) a hedging relationship because both the hedging instrument and the hedged item frequently change (ie the entity uses a dynamic process in which both the hedged items and the hedging instruments used to manage that exposure do not remain the same for long), the entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component is separately identifiable—only when it initially designates a hedged item in that hedging relationship. A hedged item that has been assessed at the time of its initial designation in the hedging relationship, whether it was at the time of the hedge inception or subsequently, is not reassessed at any subsequent redesignation in the same hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HONY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:HONY HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 649 signals.

References

  1. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  3. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  4. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  5. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HONY stock?
A: LON:HONY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:HONY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HONY Stock.
Q: Is HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HONY stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HONY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HONY stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HONY is (n+3 month)

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