Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LAND stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

LON:LAND Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LAND stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LAND stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LAND Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC

  1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  2. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
  3. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LAND stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

LON:LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba3
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBa3Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 496 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  2. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  4. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  5. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  6. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  7. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LAND stock?
A: LON:LAND stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:LAND stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:LAND Stock.
Q: Is LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LAND stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LAND is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LAND stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LAND is (n+3 month)

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