Modelling A.I. in Economics

MMD MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund

Outlook: MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 11 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Investment Risk
  3. Game Theory

MMD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MMD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MMD MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund
Time series to forecast n: 11 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund

  1. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.
  2. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  3. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  4. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

MMD MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Ba3
Balance SheetB3Caa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 744 signals.

References

  1. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  5. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MMD stock?
A: MMD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is MMD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MMD Stock.
Q: Is MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MMD stock?
A: The consensus rating for MMD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MMD stock?
A: The prediction period for MMD is (n+4 weeks)



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