Outlook: Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 23 May 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MPB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

## Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

## MPB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MPB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MPB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MPB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MPB Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 May 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock

1. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
2. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
3. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.
4. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MPB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

### MPB Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2C
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosCBa1
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 818 signals.

## References

1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
2. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
3. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
4. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MPB stock?
A: MPB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is MPB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes MPB Stock.
Q: Is Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Mid Penn Bancorp Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MPB stock?
A: The consensus rating for MPB is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for MPB stock?
A: The prediction period for MPB is (n+6 month)

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