Modelling A.I. in Economics

NBW Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 16 May 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NBW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

NBW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NBW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NBW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NBW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NBW Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 16 May 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock

  1. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
  2. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
  3. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  4. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NBW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

NBW Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba1
Cash FlowB1B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 469 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  2. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  3. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  4. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  6. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  7. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NBW stock?
A: NBW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is NBW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NBW Stock.
Q: Is Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Neuberger Berman California Municipal Fund Inc Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NBW stock?
A: The consensus rating for NBW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NBW stock?
A: The prediction period for NBW is (n+6 month)

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