Modelling A.I. in Economics

OPY OPENPAY GROUP LTD (Forecast)

Outlook: OPENPAY GROUP LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 24 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

OPENPAY GROUP LTD prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the OPY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

OPY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider OPENPAY GROUP LTD Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of OPY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OPY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OPY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OPY OPENPAY GROUP LTD
Time series to forecast n: 24 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for OPENPAY GROUP LTD

  1. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  2. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
  3. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
  4. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

OPENPAY GROUP LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. OPENPAY GROUP LTD prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the OPY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

OPY OPENPAY GROUP LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2C
Balance SheetB1Ba1
Leverage RatiosBa2B2
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 874 signals.

References

  1. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  2. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  4. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OPY stock?
A: OPY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is OPY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OPY Stock.
Q: Is OPENPAY GROUP LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for OPENPAY GROUP LTD is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OPY stock?
A: The consensus rating for OPY is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for OPY stock?
A: The prediction period for OPY is (n+8 weeks)

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