Modelling A.I. in Economics

PMF PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock

Outlook: PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 16 May 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PMF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

PMF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PMF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PMF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PMF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PMF PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 16 May 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock

  1. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
  2. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  3. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  4. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PMF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PMF PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2B1
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa1C
Cash FlowBaa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 589 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  2. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  3. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  5. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  6. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  7. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PMF stock?
A: PMF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is PMF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PMF Stock.
Q: Is PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PIMCO Municipal Income Fund Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PMF stock?
A: The consensus rating for PMF is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PMF stock?
A: The prediction period for PMF is (n+1 year)

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