Outlook: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Time series to forecast n: 07 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

## Abstract

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PMT^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Can machine learning predict?

## PMT^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PMT^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PMT^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PMT^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PMT^B PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast n: 07 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest

1. That the transferee is unlikely to sell the transferred asset does not, of itself, mean that the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. However, if a put option or guarantee constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset, then the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. For example, if a put option or guarantee is sufficiently valuable it constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset because the transferee would, in practice, not sell the transferred asset to a third party without attaching a similar option or other restrictive conditions. Instead, the transferee would hold the transferred asset so as to obtain payments under the guarantee or put option. Under these circumstances the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset.
2. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
3. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PMT^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### PMT^B PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3B2
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosB1C
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 867 signals. ## References

1. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
2. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
3. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
5. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
6. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
7. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PMT^B stock?
A: PMT^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is PMT^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PMT^B Stock.
Q: Is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 8.00% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares of Beneficial Interest is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PMT^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for PMT^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PMT^B stock?
A: The prediction period for PMT^B is (n+3 month)