Modelling A.I. in Economics

PRH Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062

Outlook: Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PRH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

PRH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PRH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PRH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PRH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PRH Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062

  1. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).
  2. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferor's contractual rights or obligations related to the transfer are not accounted for separately as derivatives if recognising both the derivative and either the transferred asset or the liability arising from the transfer would result in recognising the same rights or obligations twice. For example, a call option retained by the transferor may prevent a transfer of financial assets from being accounted for as a sale. In that case, the call option is not separately recognised as a derivative asset.
  3. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
  4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PRH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

PRH Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa2
Balance SheetB3Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowB1Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 721 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  2. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  3. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  5. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  7. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PRH stock?
A: PRH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is PRH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PRH Stock.
Q: Is Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Prudential Financial Inc. 5.950% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2062 is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PRH stock?
A: The consensus rating for PRH is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PRH stock?
A: The prediction period for PRH is (n+8 weeks)

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