Modelling A.I. in Economics

PRTA Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 15 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PRTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

PRTA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PRTA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PRTA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PRTA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PRTA Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 15 May 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  3. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
  4. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PRTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

PRTA Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetBa3Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 705 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  2. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  3. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  6. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  7. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PRTA stock?
A: PRTA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is PRTA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes PRTA Stock.
Q: Is Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Prothena Corporation plc Ordinary Shares is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PRTA stock?
A: The consensus rating for PRTA is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for PRTA stock?
A: The prediction period for PRTA is (n+8 weeks)

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