Outlook: SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

## Abstract

SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SPNT^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

## SPNT^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SPNT^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SPNT^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## SPNT^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SPNT^B SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share
Time series to forecast n: 20 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share

1. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by increasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the previously designated volume also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument also include the changes in the value of the additional volume of the hedging instrument. The changes are measured starting from, and by reference to, the date of rebalancing instead of the date on which the hedging relationship was designated. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and added a volume of 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedging instrument after rebalancing would comprise a total derivative volume of 110 tonnes. The change in the fair value of the hedging instrument is the total change in the fair value of the derivatives that make up the total volume of 110 tonnes. These derivatives could (and probably would) have different critical terms, such as their forward rates, because they were entered into at different points in time (including the possibility of designating derivatives into hedging relationships after their initial recognition).
4. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SPNT^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### SPNT^B SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Caa2
Cash FlowB1Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 617 signals.

## References

1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
2. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
3. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
4. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
5. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
6. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SPNT^B stock?
A: SPNT^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is SPNT^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SPNT^B Stock.
Q: Is SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SiriusPoint Ltd. 8.00% Resettable Fixed Rate Preference Shares Series B \$25.00 liquidation preference per share is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SPNT^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for SPNT^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SPNT^B stock?
A: The prediction period for SPNT^B is (n+4 weeks)

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