Modelling A.I. in Economics

TRVG trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares

Outlook: trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 08 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TRVG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Investment Risk
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

TRVG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TRVG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TRVG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TRVG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TRVG trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 08 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares

  1. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.
  2. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  3. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TRVG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

TRVG trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBa3Baa2
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 627 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  3. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  4. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TRVG stock?
A: TRVG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is TRVG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TRVG Stock.
Q: Is trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for trivago N.V. American Depositary Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TRVG stock?
A: The consensus rating for TRVG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TRVG stock?
A: The prediction period for TRVG is (n+3 month)

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