Outlook: ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

## Abstract

ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AAJ stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Reaction Function
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. Trading Signals

## AAJ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AAJ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AAJ stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

### Transfer Learning (ML)

Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.

### Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AAJ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AAJ ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED

1. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
2. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
3. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
4. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AAJ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### AAJ ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Ba2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosB1C
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 563 signals.

## References

1. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
2. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
3. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
4. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
5. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
6. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
7. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AAJ stock?
A: AAJ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is AAJ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AAJ Stock.
Q: Is ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ARUMA RESOURCES LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AAJ stock?
A: The consensus rating for AAJ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AAJ stock?
A: The prediction period for AAJ is 16 Weeks

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