AEL^A Stock: In a Bubble?

Outlook: American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AEL^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Market Outlook
3. Nash Equilibria

AEL^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AEL^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEL^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Polynomial Regression

Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEL^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEL^A American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A
Time series to forecast n: 14 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A

1. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
2. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
3. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AEL^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

AEL^A American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B1	B1
Balance Sheet	Ba1	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	Caa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 472 signals.

References

1. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
2. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
4. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
5. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
7. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEL^A stock?
A: AEL^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is AEL^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend AEL^A Stock.
Q: Is American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.95% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series A is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEL^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEL^A is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEL^A stock?
A: The prediction period for AEL^A is 16 Weeks

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