Modelling A.I. in Economics

ASA Stock: A Risky Bet for Investors

Outlook: ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ASA stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 3

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. Operational Risk

ASA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.

Multiple Regression

Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ASA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASA ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited

  1. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  3. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
  4. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ASA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

ASA ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 809 signals.

References

  1. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  2. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  3. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  4. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  6. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASA stock?
A: ASA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ASA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASA Stock.
Q: Is ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASA stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASA stock?
A: The prediction period for ASA is 8 Weeks

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