BPT Stock: A Bright Investment or a Bubble Waiting to Burst?

Outlook: BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Summary

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) is a grantor trust that owns and administers a royalty interest in oil and natural gas production from the Prudhoe Bay Unit in Alaska. The trust was formed in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. BPT's royalty interest entitles it to receive a share of the net profits from the production of oil and natural gas from the Prudhoe Bay Unit. The trust's royalty interest is based on a formula that takes into account the amount of oil and natural gas produced, the price of oil and natural gas, and the costs of production. BPT's distributions to unitholders are made quarterly. The amount of each distribution is based on the trust's net income for the quarter. BPT's net income is calculated by subtracting the trust's expenses from its royalty income. BPT's shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "BPT." The trust's shares are traded on a "when-issued" basis, which means that the shares are not actually issued until the day after the distribution is declared. BPT is a passive investment, which means that unitholders do not have any control over the management of the trust. The trust's assets are managed by a trustee, which is currently BNY Mellon Trust Company, N.A. BPT is a good investment for investors who are looking for a steady stream of income. The trust's distributions have been relatively stable over the past few years, and the trust's management team has a good track record of generating income for unitholders.BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BPT stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
2. Investment Risk
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

BPT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BPT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BPT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BPT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BPT BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock

1. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.
2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
3. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
4. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BPT stock is predictable in the short/long term.

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

BPT BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Income Statement	Baa2	B3
Balance Sheet	Caa2	B3
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 769 signals.

References

1. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
2. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
3. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
4. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
6. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
7. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BPT stock?
A: BPT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is BPT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPT Stock.
Q: Is BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BPT stock?
A: The consensus rating for BPT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BPT stock?
A: The prediction period for BPT is 4 Weeks

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