Modelling A.I. in Economics

BWEN Stock: A Sinking Ship?

Outlook: Broadwind Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2023 for 6 Month
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Summary

Broadwind Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BWEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 17

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. Stock Rating

BWEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Broadwind Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BWEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BWEN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BWEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BWEN Broadwind Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2023 for 6 Month

According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Broadwind Inc. Common Stock

  1. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  2. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  3. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
  4. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Broadwind Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Broadwind Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BWEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

BWEN Broadwind Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 704 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  2. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  3. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  4. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  5. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  6. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  7. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BWEN stock?
A: BWEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is BWEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BWEN Stock.
Q: Is Broadwind Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Broadwind Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BWEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for BWEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BWEN stock?
A: The prediction period for BWEN is 6 Month

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