CMS Stock: A Risky Investment, But One with a lot of Potential

Outlook: CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

Abstract

CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

CMS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CMS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CMS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Deductive Inference (ML)

Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CMS CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock

1. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
3. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating. CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CMS CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Income Statement	B3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	B2	C
Leverage Ratios	C	B2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Ba2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 577 signals.

References

1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
3. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
4. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
5. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
6. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
7. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CMS stock?
A: CMS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is CMS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CMS Stock.
Q: Is CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CMS stock?
A: The consensus rating for CMS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CMS stock?
A: The prediction period for CMS is 4 Weeks

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