CVX Stock: The Wild Ride Continues

Outlook: Chevron Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 6 Month
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Summary

Chevron Corporation is an American multinational energy corporation predominantly in oil and gas. The second-largest direct descendant of Standard Oil, and originally known as the Standard Oil Company of California (shortened to Socal or CalSo), it is headquartered in San Ramon, California, and active in more than 180 countries. Within oil and gas, Chevron is vertical integrated and is involved in hydrocarbon exploration, production, refining, marketing and transport, chemicals manufacturing and sales, and power generation.

Chevron is one of the largest companies in the world and the second largest oil company based in the United States by revenue, only behind fellow Standard Oil descendant ExxonMobil. Chevron ranked 16th on the Fortune 500 in 2022 with revenues of US$162.5 billion, which also ranked it 37th on the Fortune Global 500. The company is also the last-remaining oil and gas component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since ExxonMobil's exit from the index in 2020.

Chevron's operations are divided into three main segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Products. The Upstream segment is responsible for finding and producing oil and gas. The Downstream segment is responsible for refining, marketing, and transporting oil and gas products. The Products segment is responsible for manufacturing and selling chemicals and other products.

Chevron is a major player in the global energy industry. The company has operations in all major oil and gas producing regions of the world. Chevron is also a major refiner and marketer of oil and gas products. The company's products are sold in over 180 countries around the world.

Chevron is committed to sustainability. The company has set ambitious goals to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and to increase its use of renewable energy. Chevron is also working to develop new technologies to improve the efficiency of its operations.

In recent years, Chevron has faced a number of challenges. The company has been criticized for its environmental record. Chevron has also been affected by the decline in oil prices.

Chevron Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CVX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

CVX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Chevron Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CVX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CVX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.

Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CVX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CVX Chevron Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 6 Month

According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Chevron Corporation Common Stock

1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
2. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.
3. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
4. Despite the requirement in paragraph 7.2.1, an entity that adopts the classification and measurement requirements of this Standard (which include the requirements related to amortised cost measurement for financial assets and impairment in Sections 5.4 and 5.5) shall provide the disclosures set out in paragraphs 42L–42O of IFRS 7 but need not restate prior periods. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application. However, if an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all of the requirements in this Standard. If an entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9 results in more than one date of initial application for different requirements, this paragraph applies at each date of initial application (see paragraph 7.2.2). This would be the case, for example, if an entity elects to early apply only the requirements for the presentation of gains and losses on financial liabilities designated as at fair value through profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 7.1.2 before applying the other requirements in this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Chevron Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Chevron Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CVX stock is predictable in the short/long term.

According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

CVX Chevron Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Income Statement	Baa2	B3
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 547 signals.

References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
3. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
4. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
5. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
6. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CVX stock?
A: CVX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is CVX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CVX Stock.
Q: Is Chevron Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Chevron Corporation Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CVX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CVX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CVX stock?
A: The prediction period for CVX is 6 Month

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