Modelling A.I. in Economics

CZL CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED

Outlook: CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jun 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CZL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

CZL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CZL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CZL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CZL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CZL CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jun 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED

  1. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
  2. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.
  3. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CZL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

CZL CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 699 signals.

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  3. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  4. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  7. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CZL stock?
A: CZL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is CZL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CZL Stock.
Q: Is CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CONSOLIDATED ZINC LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CZL stock?
A: The consensus rating for CZL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CZL stock?
A: The prediction period for CZL is (n+1 year)

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