GBR Stock: The Stock Market Is a Time Bomb

Outlook: New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Summary

New Concept Energy Inc (NCE) is an oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. The company was founded in 1978 and focuses on North American oil and gas drilling and exploration projects. NCE's current properties are concentrated in the Appalachian Basin and Utica Basin.

NCE is a publicly traded company, listed on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol "GBR." The company's stock price has been volatile in recent years, but it has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2023.

NCE's financial performance has been mixed in recent years. The company reported a net loss of $10.8 million in 2021, but it reported a net income of $3.3 million in the first quarter of 2023.

NCE's future prospects are uncertain. The company is facing a number of challenges, including the decline in oil prices and the increasing regulatory environment. However, NCE also has a number of potential growth opportunities, including its focus on the Marcellus Shale and the Utica Shale.

Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with investing in NCE before making a decision.

The oil and gas industry is cyclical, and the price of oil can fluctuate significantly.
The success of NCE's projects is uncertain.
The development of NCE's projects can be expensive and time-consuming.
NCE is facing a number of challenges, including the decline in oil prices and the increasing regulatory environment.

New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GBR stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell Graph 34

Key Points

Probability Distribution
What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
How can neural networks improve predictions?

GBR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GBR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks

\sum_{i = 1}^{n} (s_{i})

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GBR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.

Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GBR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GBR New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock

Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GBR stock is predictable in the short/long term.

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

GBR New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba1
Income Statement	B2	B1
Balance Sheet	C	B1
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

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M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GBR stock?
A: GBR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is GBR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell GBR Stock.
Q: Is New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for New Concept Energy Inc Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GBR stock?
A: The consensus rating for GBR is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for GBR stock?
A: The prediction period for GBR is 8 Weeks