Is AGFS Stock Buy or Sell?

Outlook: AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised* :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

Abstract

AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

*Revision

We revised our short-term strategy to .(Based on stock rating surveillance.) We also affirmed our outlook and AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.

Key Points

1. Trading Signals
2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

AGFS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AGFS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AGFS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transductive Learning (ML)

Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AGFS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AGFS AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock

1. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
3. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
4. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 estimated rating. AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGFS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AGFS AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	B1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba2	Ba3
Cash Flow	B2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	B2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 640 signals.

References

1. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
2. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
3. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
6. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AGFS stock?
A: AGFS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is AGFS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AGFS Stock.
Q: Is AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AgroFresh Solutions Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AGFS stock?
A: The consensus rating for AGFS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AGFS stock?
A: The prediction period for AGFS is 16 Weeks

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