Is HIG Stock Buy or Sell?

Outlook: Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Caa1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

Abstract

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

HIG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HIG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HIG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HIG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock

1. The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding
2. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
3. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
4. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Caa1 estimated rating. Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Caa1
Income Statement	B3	Caa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	C
Cash Flow	Ba3	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 702 signals.

References

1. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
2. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
4. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
5. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
6. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
7. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HIG stock?
A: HIG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is HIG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HIG Stock.
Q: Is Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Caa1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HIG stock?
A: The consensus rating for HIG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HIG stock?
A: The prediction period for HIG is 8 Weeks

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