Outlook: MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 26 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

## Abstract

MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:MHM stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

## LON:MHM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MHM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MHM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

### Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

### Pearson Correlation

Pearson correlation, also known as Pearson's product-moment correlation, is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables. It is a statistical measure that assesses the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The sign of the correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship, while the magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0.9 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a correlation coefficient of 0.2 indicates a weak positive correlation.

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:MHM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MHM MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC
Time series to forecast n: 26 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC

1. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
2. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
3. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
4. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating. MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:MHM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### LON:MHM MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Baa2
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetB1Ba1
Leverage RatiosB1Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 467 signals.

## References

1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
4. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
5. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MHM stock?
A: LON:MHM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:MHM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MHM Stock.
Q: Is MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MARSH & MCLENNAN COS. INC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MHM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MHM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MHM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MHM is 16 Weeks