LON:DVNO Stock: A Bubble Waiting to Burst

Outlook: DEVELOP NORTH PLC is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 20 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Summary

DEVELOP NORTH PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:DVNO stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

LON:DVNO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DEVELOP NORTH PLC Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DVNO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DVNO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transfer Learning (ML)

Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.

Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:DVNO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DVNO DEVELOP NORTH PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for DEVELOP NORTH PLC

1. For example, an entity hedges an exposure to Foreign Currency A using a currency derivative that references Foreign Currency B and Foreign Currencies A and B are pegged (ie their exchange rate is maintained within a band or at an exchange rate set by a central bank or other authority). If the exchange rate between Foreign Currency A and Foreign Currency B were changed (ie a new band or rate was set), rebalancing the hedging relationship to reflect the new exchange rate would ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet the hedge effectiveness requirement for the hedge ratio in the new circumstances. In contrast, if there was a default on the currency derivative, changing the hedge ratio could not ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet that hedge effectiveness requirement. Hence, rebalancing does not facilitate the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item changes in a way that cannot be compensated for by adjusting the hedge ratio
2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
3. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
4. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

DEVELOP NORTH PLC is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. DEVELOP NORTH PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:DVNO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:DVNO DEVELOP NORTH PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba1
Income Statement	C	B1
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	Baa2
Cash Flow	B3	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 863 signals.

References

1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
2. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
4. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
5. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
6. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DVNO stock?
A: LON:DVNO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is LON:DVNO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:DVNO Stock.
Q: Is DEVELOP NORTH PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DEVELOP NORTH PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DVNO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DVNO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DVNO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DVNO is 8 Weeks

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