Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:LIB Stock: Future is Bright, but not Without Challenges

Outlook: LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised* :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

Summary

LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LIB stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


*Revision

We revised our short-term strategy to .(Based on stock rating surveillance.) We also affirmed our outlook and LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.

Graph 30

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. Decision Making
  3. Decision Making

LON:LIB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LIB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LIB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LIB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LIB LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC

  1. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  2. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
  3. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LIB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:LIB LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosCaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 733 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  3. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  4. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  6. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  7. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LIB stock?
A: LON:LIB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:LIB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LIB Stock.
Q: Is LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LIBERTINE HOLDINGS PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LIB stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LIB is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LIB stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LIB is 4 Weeks

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