NJR Stock: A Risky Investment, But One with a lot of Potential

Outlook: NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NJR stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

NJR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of NJR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NJR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NJR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock

1. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
2. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
3. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
4. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NJR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	B1
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B1
Cash Flow	Baa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 710 signals.

References

1. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
4. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
5. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
6. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
7. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NJR stock?
A: NJR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Chi-Square
Q: Is NJR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NJR Stock.
Q: Is NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NJR stock?
A: The consensus rating for NJR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NJR stock?
A: The prediction period for NJR is 4 Weeks

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