NUF Stock: A Risky Investment

Outlook: NUFARM LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : HoldBuy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

NUFARM LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NUF stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

NUF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NUFARM LIMITED Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NUF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NUF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

Multiple Regression

Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NUF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NUF NUFARM LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NUFARM LIMITED

1. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
2. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
3. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
4. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NUFARM LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. NUFARM LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NUF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

NUF NUFARM LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	B1
Cash Flow	Baa2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 642 signals.

References

1. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
2. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
3. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
4. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
6. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
7. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NUF stock?
A: NUF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NUF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy NUF Stock.
Q: Is NUFARM LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NUFARM LIMITED is HoldBuy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NUF stock?
A: The consensus rating for NUF is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NUF stock?
A: The prediction period for NUF is 4 Weeks

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