**Outlook:**CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Sell

**Time series to forecast n: 12 Jun 2023**for 6 Month

**Methodology :**Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

## Abstract

CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the PMTS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

**According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

## Key Points

- Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
- How do predictive algorithms actually work?
- Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

## PMTS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PMTS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PMTS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

### Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.### Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PMTS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**PMTS CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 12 Jun 2023**for 6 Month

**According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock

- Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
- If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
- In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
- A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^{1,2,3,4} and it is concluded that the PMTS stock is predictable in the short/long term. ** According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

### PMTS CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba1 |

Income Statement | Baa2 | C |

Balance Sheet | Caa2 | Ba3 |

Leverage Ratios | Baa2 | B1 |

Cash Flow | C | C |

Rates of Return and Profitability | Baa2 | Baa2 |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
- J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
- J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
- ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
- Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
- Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
- G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PMTS stock?A: PMTS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

Q: Is PMTS stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PMTS Stock.

Q: Is CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for CPI Card Group Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of PMTS stock?

A: The consensus rating for PMTS is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for PMTS stock?

A: The prediction period for PMTS is 6 Month

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