PVBC Stock Forecast: A Sell For The Next 16 Weeks

Outlook: Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Summary

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. What is neural prediction?

PVBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PVBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PVBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

Spearman Correlation

Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PVBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock

1. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
2. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
3. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
4. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba3
Income Statement	B3	Ba3
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	B3	Baa2
Cash Flow	B2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 465 signals.

References

1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
2. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
3. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
4. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
5. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
7. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PVBC stock?
A: PVBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is PVBC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PVBC Stock.
Q: Is Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PVBC stock?
A: The consensus rating for PVBC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PVBC stock?
A: The prediction period for PVBC is 16 Weeks

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