Should You Buy Now or Wait? LPI Stock Forecast

Outlook: Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Abstract

Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LPI stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

LPI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LPI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LPI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transfer Learning (ML)

Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.

Spearman Correlation

Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LPI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 4 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LPI Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023 for 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock

1. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
2. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
3. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.
4. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LPI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LPI Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B2	Caa2
Balance Sheet	B3	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B1	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 830 signals.

References

1. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
2. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
3. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
4. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
5. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
6. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
7. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LPI stock?
A: LPI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LPI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LPI Stock.
Q: Is Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Laredo Petroleum Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LPI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LPI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LPI stock?
A: The prediction period for LPI is 4 Weeks

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