Modelling A.I. in Economics

SMRT Stock Forecast: A Speculative Trend For The Next 8 Weeks

Outlook: SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SMRT stock is predictable in the short/long term. Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 14

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Trading Signals
  3. Reaction Function

SMRT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SMRT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMRT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Deductive Inference (ML)

Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMRT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMRT SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. The following example describes a situation in which an accounting mismatch would be created in profit or loss if the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability were presented in other comprehensive income. A mortgage bank provides loans to customers and funds those loans by selling bonds with matching characteristics (eg amount outstanding, repayment profile, term and currency) in the market. The contractual terms of the loan permit the mortgage customer to prepay its loan (ie satisfy its obligation to the bank) by buying the corresponding bond at fair value in the market and delivering that bond to the mortgage bank. As a result of that contractual prepayment right, if the credit quality of the bond worsens (and, thus, the fair value of the mortgage bank's liability decreases), the fair value of the mortgage bank's loan asset also decreases. The change in the fair value of the asset reflects the mortgage customer's contractual right to prepay the mortgage loan by buying the underlying bond at fair value (which, in this example, has decreased) and delivering the bond to the mortgage bank. Consequently, the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability (the bond) will be offset in profit or loss by a corresponding change in the fair value of a financial asset (the loan). If the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk were presented in other comprehensive income there would be an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. Consequently, the mortgage bank is required to present all changes in fair value of the liability (including the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk) in profit or loss.
  2. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  3. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SMRT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

SMRT SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetB1Caa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 608 signals.

References

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  2. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  3. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  4. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  5. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  6. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SMRT stock?
A: SMRT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is SMRT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend SMRT Stock.
Q: Is SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SmartRent Inc. Class A Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMRT stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMRT is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMRT stock?
A: The prediction period for SMRT is 8 Weeks

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