SURF Stock: A Spark That Could Fizzle

Outlook: Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SURF stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 7

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. Can machine learning predict?
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

SURF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SURF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SURF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.

Polynomial Regression

Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SURF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 16 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SURF Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jun 2023 for 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock

  1. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  2. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  3. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  4. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SURF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

SURF Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 559 signals.

References

  1. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  2. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  3. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
  4. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  5. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  6. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  7. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SURF stock?
A: SURF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is SURF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SURF Stock.
Q: Is Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Surface Oncology Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SURF stock?
A: The consensus rating for SURF is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SURF stock?
A: The prediction period for SURF is 16 Weeks

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