**Outlook:**FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023**for 6 Month

**Methodology :**Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

## Summary

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the FRC^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

**According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- Can neural networks predict stock market?
- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- What is a prediction confidence?

## FRC^I Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FRC^I stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Chi-Square)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FRC^I stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

### Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.### Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FRC^I Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**FRC^I FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share

**Time series to forecast n: 19 Jun 2023**for 6 Month

**According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share

- Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
- If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
- The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
- The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^{1,2,3,4} and it is concluded that the FRC^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. ** According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

### FRC^I FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba1 |

Income Statement | Ba3 | B3 |

Balance Sheet | B3 | Caa2 |

Leverage Ratios | Ba3 | C |

Cash Flow | B2 | Baa2 |

Rates of Return and Profitability | Ba2 | Ba3 |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
- C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
- Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
- Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
- Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FRC^I stock?A: FRC^I stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square

Q: Is FRC^I stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FRC^I Stock.

Q: Is FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 5.50% Noncumulative Perpetual Series I Preferred Stock par value $0.01 per share is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of FRC^I stock?

A: The consensus rating for FRC^I is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for FRC^I stock?

A: The prediction period for FRC^I is 6 Month

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