Modelling A.I. in Economics

AGLD:TSXV Stock: A Cautionary Tale

Outlook: Austral Gold Limited is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Austral Gold Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGLD:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 45

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Investment Risk
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

AGLD:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Austral Gold Limited Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AGLD:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AGLD:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AGLD:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AGLD:TSXV Austral Gold Limited
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) based AGLD:TSXV Stock Prediction Model

  1. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
  2. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
  3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AGLD:TSXV Austral Gold Limited Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B3
Income StatementCBa3
Balance SheetBa2C
Leverage RatiosB3C
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Austral Gold Limited is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 estimated rating. Austral Gold Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AGLD:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 698 signals.

References

  1. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  2. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  3. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  4. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  5. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  6. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  7. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AGLD:TSXV stock?
A: AGLD:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is AGLD:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AGLD:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Austral Gold Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Austral Gold Limited is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AGLD:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for AGLD:TSXV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AGLD:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for AGLD:TSXV is 1 Year

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