BCDA Stock Forecast: A Buy For The Next 6 Month

Outlook: BioCardia Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

BioCardia Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BCDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Trading Signals
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. How do you pick a stock?

BCDA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BioCardia Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BCDA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BCDA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Linear Regression

In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BCDA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BCDA BioCardia Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based BCDA Stock Prediction Model

1. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
3. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BCDA BioCardia Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Income Statement	B1	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	Ba3
Cash Flow	Ba3	B1
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

BioCardia Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating. BioCardia Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BCDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 875 signals.

References

1. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
2. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
3. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
4. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
5. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
6. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
7. T. Morimura, M. Sugiyama, M. Kashima, H. Hachiya, and T. Tanaka. Nonparametric return distribution ap- proximation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 799–806, 2010

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BCDA stock?
A: BCDA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is BCDA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BCDA Stock.
Q: Is BioCardia Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BioCardia Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BCDA stock?
A: The consensus rating for BCDA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BCDA stock?
A: The prediction period for BCDA is 6 Month

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