BMA Stock Forecast: A Sell For The Next 6 Month

Outlook: Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

BMA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BMA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BMA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

Lasso Regression

Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BMA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BMA Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares)
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) based BMA Stock Prediction Model

1. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
4. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BMA Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba1
Income Statement	Ba1	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	B1
Cash Flow	Baa2	Ba2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B1	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 771 signals.

References

1. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
4. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
6. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BMA stock?
A: BMA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is BMA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BMA Stock.
Q: Is Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares) is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BMA stock?
A: The consensus rating for BMA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BMA stock?
A: The prediction period for BMA is 6 Month

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