CELH Stock: A Risky Investment

Outlook: Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Stepwise Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CELH stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Can stock prices be predicted?
2. What is prediction model?
3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

CELH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CELH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CELH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Stepwise Regression

Stepwise regression is a method of variable selection in which variables are added or removed from a model one at a time, based on their statistical significance. There are two main types of stepwise regression: forward selection and backward elimination. In forward selection, variables are added to the model one at a time, starting with the variable with the highest F-statistic. The F-statistic is a measure of how much improvement in the model is gained by adding the variable. Variables are added to the model until no variable adds a statistically significant improvement to the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CELH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CELH Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based CELH Stock Prediction Model

1. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
2. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
3. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
4. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CELH Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B1
Income Statement	B3	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Ba1
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CELH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 864 signals.

References

1. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
2. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
3. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
5. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
6. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
7. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CELH stock?
A: CELH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CELH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CELH Stock.
Q: Is Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Celsius Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CELH stock?
A: The consensus rating for CELH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CELH stock?
A: The prediction period for CELH is 1 Year

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