DCTH Stock: The Wild Ride Continues

Outlook: Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DCTH stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Key Points

1. Can machine learning predict?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Operational Risk

DCTH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DCTH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DCTH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DCTH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DCTH Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based DCTH Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
3. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
4. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

DCTH Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Income Statement	Ba3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	B3
Leverage Ratios	B2	B3
Cash Flow	C	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DCTH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 820 signals.

References

1. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
2. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
4. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
6. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for DCTH stock?
A: DCTH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is DCTH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend DCTH Stock.
Q: Is Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Delcath Systems Inc. Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DCTH stock?
A: The consensus rating for DCTH is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for DCTH stock?
A: The prediction period for DCTH is 16 Weeks

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