Modelling A.I. in Economics

FEO Stock: A Spark That Could Fizzle

Outlook: First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 18

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

FEO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of FEO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FEO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.

Linear Regression

In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FEO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FEO First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based FEO Stock Prediction Model

  1. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  2. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  3. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  4. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

FEO First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetBa3Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 582 signals.

References

  1. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  2. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  3. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  4. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  5. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  7. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FEO stock?
A: FEO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression
Q: Is FEO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FEO Stock.
Q: Is First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Trust/abrdn Emerging Opportunity Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FEO stock?
A: The consensus rating for FEO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for FEO stock?
A: The prediction period for FEO is 4 Weeks

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